Stars and Strifes

STATESIDE
Stars and Strifes
BY MICHAEL JANOFSKY

It was supposed to be the closest presidential election in American history. Polls fluctuated down the stretch with no lead exceeding the margin of error in the seven battleground states forecast to determine the winner. All other states were locked in, deeply Blue ones for Vice President Kamala Harris, deeply Red ones for Donald Trump. His prediction of a decisive victory was dismissed as typical exaggeration. 

But then it wasn’t. With more votes than his winning total in 2016, he proved that voters protesting high costs of food and fuel cared less about threats to democracy and reproductive rights than promises of tax cuts and border security. It seemed they would accept a convicted felon, sexual abuser and chronic liar with a dark vision of America over an optimistic Black-Asian who would have become the nation’s first woman president.

It sounds inconceivable, but a closer look shows it wasn’t. Post-pandemic America, like other countries, is lurching rightwards and Trump took advantage. He artfully exploited the anxieties of voters everywhere, scoring solid advantages among white men, Latinos, Christians and non-college educated voters. He also cut margins where Democrats typically reign, such as in New York and California. Sexism and racism likely played a part, but that’s harder to quantify.

In large measure, Trump campaigned on grievance and vengeance, which became a proxy for his supporters. Every setback – including 34 felony convictions, a $455m judgement for business fraud, an $83m penalty for defaming a woman he sexually abused and two assassination attempts – was campaign gold, literally and figuratively. They helped him raise money and position himself as another victim among so many who felt ignored and disdained by Democrats and their coastal “elites”.

And despite Trump's chequered past as a businessman, voters saw him as a better option for economic stability. The day after the election, the stock market rose more than 1,500 points, its best day in four years.

Harris, on the other hand, ran as a “change” candidate with aspirational policy goals. Voters saw her as an extension of President Joe Biden, not least because in one interview she couldn't name a single policy that would be different from his. That was a huge mistake even if it demonstrated loyalty to the boss. She won ten million fewer votes than Biden had in 2020.

Harris was also undone by Biden’s persistently low approval ratings. He once vowed to be a bridge to a new generation of leaders but hung on even when his public appearances suggested alarming structural wear and tear. Indeed, he waited so long to step aside that Harris had only 107 days to flag her fitness for emergency intervention. Not nearly enough time to prepare for tackling Donald Trump, a man who'd been in training for his White House return since the day he left it, four years ago.

Foreign policy reversals

International leaders are braced for a return to the upending positions that marked Trump's first term: demanding more money from NATO allies, pulling out of the Paris climate accord, ending the Iran nuclear agreement, and warmer relations with Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and Kim Jong Un.

Here are a few hotspots:

Russia and Ukraine: Trump boasted throughout his campaign that he would end the war “in 24 hours”. The inference is he'll cut a deal that gives Russia the territory it already controls with promises Ukraine stays out of NATO, thus fulfilling Trump’s desire to curtail almost three years of US support for Ukraine.

Putin: Biden and Putin have not spoken for three years. Trump has always held Putin in high regard and rejected claims of Russian interference with the 2020 election – despite views to the contrary within US intelligence agencies. He is therefore likely to reconnect with the Russian president.

China: While Biden and Xi held their differences to a level well below military confrontation, Trump’s threat of raising tariffs on Chinese imports will disrupt the economies of both countries. It is also anticipated that Trump will renege on Biden’s promises to defend Taiwan against Chinese incursion.

NATO: Trump threatened to pull out in his first term unless member countries paid more for their own defence. Some did. But there are fears he might go through with it this time. 

The Middle East: While Biden urged a ceasefire and the release of all hostages, Trump’s staunch support for Israel and his deep friendship with Benjamin Netanyahu suggest hostilities will continue with ever-graver consequences. Hostages will remain captive and non-combatants in Gaza and Lebanon will die in untold numbers. If Iran moves aggressively against Israel on behalf of Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, US support for Israel will likely increase dramatically.

US-UK relations: Biden in office viewed his counterparts as equals, Trump less so – and this time he faces a Labour PM in Keir Starmer. With his threats of tariffs and American First ideology, the special relationship might not be so special over the next four years. Yes, Starmer phoned in his congratulations even before the result was official. But Nigel Farage was inside Mar-a-Lago on election night.

Climate: Biden’s biggest policy success was a record investment in clean energy. Trump regards climate change as a Chicken Little phenomenon. He encourages more fossil fuel production – “Drill, baby, drill” – even as other countries are seeking alternatives. It’s doubtful he will sign on to any new international efforts to cut greenhouse gases.

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